Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Ramblings and Stuff

I am starting to clog up the world chat a bit so I thought I should bring it here.
First the MVP Awards.
I have no problem with any of the three Baltimore guys to choose from. All three have great hitting lines and should be up for the voting.
Einar DeJesus really has had a very nice season. Personally I don't value stolen bases that much but for those that do he has 85 of them. He also the best hitting CF in the AL this season but I think that is more of a lack or CF talent then his abilities. He has played very good defense too and it you think defense and stolen base is your type of MVP this is your guy.
Cesar Gabriel is having his best hitting season ever. After playing In CF in Montreal he moved over to right and he has played very well there. He also has played 346 innings at third this season and has done great in those games with 9 plus plays to go along with his 8 in right. He has batted in the one whole all season getting things started for one of the best offense in the game. He will get my vote due to my policy of always voting for Mighty Millers. If he falls out of the race I will pick Albert The Noodle" Gonzalez.
Over in the NL My current Vote Goes to Jordan "Wimpy" Weiss. His combination of hitting and fielding are just too goof to overlook. Oh and maybe this is not noticed by everyone around the world but he is .003 batting average point away from a Traditional Triple Crown( I wish I could look up historic league leaders and see if its been done before if you know I would love to have that information).
David Gomez would be my second pick. He is the current Modern Triple Crown leader. I would normally instantly pick a player with that accomplishment but there is just something nostalgic about the Traditional one.
After the top two you have Davey "The Lady"Fick is having his worst offensive season since season 14. I didn't but should have look at park factors with his new team. Jim "Not" White does nothing for me. Felix"No Shame" Torrealba rounds it out and he would be a solid third this season. No shame in that those other two guys are playing great.
Voting snubs! WiS has a formula in place that picks who you can vote for for Season awards. The Formula is about the same one used to pick all stars. So if you get pissed every season about getting screwed out of All Stars the same thing will happen at the end of the season. WiS says this is how it is figured;
For batting awards, players must average 3.1 plate appearances per team game or more in order to qualify. Pitchers must average one inning pitched per team game. Position players must appear in 50% of their team's innings played to qualify for fielding awards.

Cy Young: Innings Pitched, Earned Runs, Strikeouts, Saves, Shutouts, Wins, Losses, Team Records and Park Factor.

MVP: Runs Created, Good Plays, Poor Plays, Fielding percentage, Park Factor, Position Played (difficulty), Passed Balls (catchers only)

Fireman of the Year: Saves, Wins, Losses, and Blown Saves

Gold Glove: Fielding percentage, good plays, poor plays, Errors, and Range Factor

Silver Slugger: Runs created and park factor

Rookie of the Year: Closely mimics the formula used for MVPs for position players and Cy Young for Pitchers. In order to be eligible for the ROY or NOY, a player must not have more than 150 career AB or 50 IP at the current level. For instance, if a player had 87 at-bats at the big league level in season 1 and 90 at-bats at the big league level in season 2, then he will not be eligible for the award in season 3 and beyond.

In each case, there are weights assigned to the individual components for the award calculation. While real life awards are decided by writers using the core raw stats and their personal opinion of how good/valuable players are (despite numerous objections by other esteemed writers across the land), HBD can use more appropriate statistics and accuracy to determine the best of the best.

If you think you have a player that should be up for an award but he isn't listed, be sure to evaluate all the component pieces and compare them to the players ranked ahead of them. It's hard to take sometime (like when you have a player with 55 HR, 150 RBI and a .340 AVG not in the top then), but there are always reasons why they are ranked where they are. They could be playing 1B while those ahead are SS & CF. They could be playing half their games in a hitter's park while those ahead play in pitcher's parks. Many reasons, all put together, and the best are at the top of the pack.

Lets go over this now shall we. For the Cy Young(last I checked the best pitcher in the league).

  • They look at innings pitcher. OK sure you need to pitch innings to win. Sounds fair so far I guess but how many? Oh I see 1 per game played. Well fine than don't have a real standard. So a team with a five man staff can have a pitcher go 5 innings every time and qualify. Well that is the bottom number I guess moving along.

  • Earned Runs... really you are going to take a stat based on the abilities of the pitchers defense behind him. I have see many times in this game where a pitcher will give up 4 unearned in an inning. Should a Cy Young winning Pitcher be able to get out of that inning with less damage. I believe so.

  • Strikeouts are sexy for sure. I love them and you love them but does striking a guy out really mean that your the best pitcher. If you have a bunch of innings and an average strikeout abilities you are going to have more strikeouts of course. Why not just use the K/9 ratio that you already have calculated.

  • Saves... what the fuck! Why on earth put saves in any sort of award. Saves are the most worthless statistic in baseball all together. It has created a thought process that you need to have you best bullpen arm in the game in the ninth inning alone. That thought process is not good for a winning team. Why would you not put your best bullpen arm in the most important game situation like a tie game in the seventh with a runner on second and no outs. Why put your second or third best relief pitching in the game when you could have your best. The Save stat is worthless trust me folks I really could go on and on about it. Oh and how the hell are you going to get the innings in that are required when you are trying to build up saves. Bullpen guys should not be able to receive this award they have their own to win.

  • Shutouts. I love it sounds good to me but why not include complete games too.

  • Wins and losses... I have as much venom for this stat as I do saves. To win a baseball game many many things need to go right. First and for most you need to have more runs than the other team. Now a starting pitcher has some influence in this but we already talked about earned runs right. What if your team around you sucks. The Pitcher can go out pitch brilliantly and lose. A pitcher can go out get shelled and win. It is a stat that the pitcher does not have enough influence with for me to add that to the Cy Young award.

  • Team Record!!!! Am I really looking for the best pitcher here. Now not only do I have to worry about the times the ace takes the hill I have to think about the other four guys and how they can screw/help a guy win an award. For me I just want the best pitcher not the best pitcher on a winning team only.

  • Park Factor should play into the outcome.

My Cy Young formula would be K/BB, K/9 OPS against, WHIP, Complete games and shutouts, Innings would have to play into it somehow and maybe just one inning a game is enough. Done with rant number one.

Now the MVP rant.

  • Runs Created I am fine with. I think that what is put into this formula is what I like to see from a MVP player.

  • Good plays/Poor Plays could be useful but there is such a huge issue in in this game for me. I could play a below average hitting shortstop at first and watch him get 30 plus plays. Or I could see an average second baseman that hits the cover off the ball and he could be 4/4. I will take the second baseman that crush over the sexy gloved first baseman any day. Fielding should absolutely count don't get me wrong but it has to be reasonable.

  • Fielding % should not be a factor. There are way too many different position in baseball that require different skill sets to allow this to matter here. I could have a guy playing short with 68 range and 99 glove. Yes his fielding % will be great but is he a better SS than an 85/85 guy. I do not believe that to be a true statement. I would rather have a guy get a few errors and get to the ball then a guy the doesn't get the ball but really picks up the easy ones well.

  • Park Factors again sure sounds fair.

  • Position played... What the fuck. In this game you can play any player anywhere anytime you want to. If the guy plays his position better then most and crushes the ball that is all that should matter. I would rather have the 7th best RF that hits like crazy then the best CF that hits 7th best for his position but fields the best. I love defense as you can see on my team and in my predictions. But it gets a little crazy here.

  • Passed balls for the catcher. Why hate on the catchers!

I think MVP should go by the Traditional Triple Crown stats(Home runs, RBI, Average), the Modern Triple Crown stats(AVG, OBP, SLG), Runs created, OPS and a playable fielding ability. *I know some stats are repeated thanks for your input.

OK I am done for now it just really pisses me off that I can't vote for Russell "The Phylloxera" Reitz

Friday, September 23, 2011

More Award Talk: Cy Young

I am going to start with the Cy Young's first because the pitching has really interested me this season. Since the mid-season report some things have changed a bit.

In the AL Ted Timlin is still having a fantastic season. Still only one loss to go along with his 20 wins now. He still is and should be a favorite to win the award. In some of my preferred statistics like K/BB and K/9 head of the other front runners. Ramiro Cabrera is crushing the world in K/BB this season. Almost a top five season ever. I don't consider Cabrera a top five though despite leading that and one of my other favorite stats BB/9. Maybe he should be though maybe I'll dig deep later on him. Maybe.
Now to the rising contender and maybe new front runner "Big" Dick Randall. He has been a mode consistency this season. Back on 8/30 he let up 6 runs. That was his low point this season. He followed that up with two straight no runs games. When he takes the hill all Detroit has to do most of the time is score 3 or more runs to get the win. He has 6 no decisions so far this season and in all 6 of them he let up 3 or less runs. Five times he let up 2 or less. Four times 1 run or less. And once with out letting up a single run. If he had just a little bit of run support and a better bullpen he would have more wins than everybody in the world. Or maybe if he could go deeper into the game that would change a bit. He is only averaging about 6.5 inning a start. Randall is the AL leader in my favorite pitching stat that we can find OPS against(.591 vs Timlin .608). To me this is the most important stat. It is very telling in how a pitcher preforms overall. He is also the AL leader in ERA, second in WHIP, 5th in K/BB, 3rd in K/9 and 12th in BB/9.
One thing that does bother me about these to guys is the lack of innings. Randall does make the top ten but Timlin is out of the top 25 altogether. Timlin has not gone more then 7 innings all season and averages under 6 a game. In all though, these two guys are the front runners for the AL. I don't know where my vote is going to go yet but I can bet you it is going to be for Lyle Moran because why on earth would I not vote for my own guy. I think you all should vote for him too.


The NL may have even a closer race with more option to choose from. At the mid-season report I had Floyd Mullen as my easy pick. I don't believe that to be a true statement anymore. Russell "The Phylloxera" Reitz has really picked up his game(really the number two pick how is Mike Lyon Looking now). Clay Henry is right on the heels of Reitz for my next choice. In the wins/loses category there is no front runner as the top tier are all about the same to me. Mullen sub 2 ERA would steal votes right off the bat but as stated a few times before ERA can be misleading. The three mention are 123 in the ERA race 1,2,4 in the WHIP race Angel Cueto coming in the third spot there. In OPS against, Mullen has a huge advantage with a .508. Reitz hold a .538 followed by Henry's .591. So right there you see that to me Reitz and Henry better make up for tht gap some how. Boy does Reitz find a way to bridge the gap with his NL record setting season. What record you ask? His K/BB rate is the highest ever in the NL. Second only to the great "Sir" William Haselman, who set the record back in season 7. Mullen falls in at ten on this seasons list. Clay is 19th. K/9 Reitz is 3rd Mullen 12th and Clay is... Not on the list. Reitz also leads BB/9 while Mullen is 13th and Clay 12th. All three are in the top ten in innings pitched. I think that after the closer look at the numbers my vote is going to go to Reitz. The is difference between he and Mullen in K/BB is just too much to go against. Looks like maybe a passing of the torch might be happening this season.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Racing!!! Where teams stand today

Historically in the AL, the Play-off picture is usually pretty set but the non-waiver deadline. This season we are seeing a few more teams pushing to get to the post season.
Baltimore is a lock for the one seed per the norm in Kaline.
For the fifth time in six season, the defending world series champions(in your face Cloud and Bernie ;-p), The Minnesota Miller are in a good position for the second seed.
As of right now, Memphis holds the three spot but St. Louis is just a game behind for the AL south crown.
The fourth spot be Scottsdale. They hold an 11 game advantage over the second team in the terrible terrible AL West. They are finally getting near .500 too, so they are playing much better baseball.
The fifth spot falls to Pawtucket and they are almost a lock for the top wild card team. If they were in the AL West or south they would be winning a better position but when you play in the Best division in the Kaline you can get stuck in second with a nice record. They hold a lead the wild card race buy 10 games but only trail Minnesota by 6 games.
Now the fight for number six. St. Louis, Seattle, and Indianapolis are all tied for the spot. Durham is only two games back Cincinnati 3 games Detroit 4 games and still even Jackson at 6 games back still has a fighting chance.
The unsub AL best guess ranking

  1. Baltimore. Really I know out a limb here. They have a 15 game lead and should be in cruise control mode now.

  2. Minnesota. With still around 50 games to go Pawtucket could make a run. Pawtucket plays Minnesota 3 more times.

  3. *Durham. Only three games back I will explain below how it plays out in my worthless math.

  4. Scottsdale. 11 game lead over really bad teams this season.

  5. Pawtucket. Ten game advantage.

  6. *St. Louis but I should pick Cincinnati again see below.

I give the 3 spot to Durham because they only have 21 games left against teams with a .500 record or better. Durham also only has seven more games against the three teams with a .600 record or better and ten games left with the teams with .400 record or under. The current leader has 28 games with teams .500 or better and 11 games with the top three teams while only playing the bottom three six times. They would have to play very good ball down the stretch to make the play-offs in my opinion. St. Louis has it rough too. They play 23 games against teams with a .500 record or better 14 games with .600 and up and only 6 with below .400.

So why even pick St. Louis to make the play-offs? I don't know. Of the games played against the top three, 16, they have won a whopping 3. So again why pick them? I guess I do truly believe that they are the best team of the wild card group. Even if all the numbers tell me differently. Cincinnati only has 19 games left with teams .500 or better, 6 games with the top three and 14 verses the bottom three. They only trail the 6 spot by three game. According to the math that got Durham in it should also get them in but well its my blog entry so eat it.

Last thing to consider. Detroit has a span of 20 games against teams below .500. They end the season with ten straight games with Baltimore Pawtucket and Minnesota. My thinking might be that those three team will be in play-off mode and key players might be resting for the real games. Maybe Detroit just maybe!

The NL is always hard to figure out. They are so much more balanced then the AL and always have tons of different racing to watch. This season is no different. Even the one seed is a race this season.

Houston holds it now but Fargo is three games back and Sacramento is Four.

That means by my quick Minnesota math that Fargo is only a game up on second first round bye spot. Those are so important and this race is so tight it is anyones call. As it stands today Sacramento has a 4 game lead for the NL West and the 3 spot.

Boston has around .500 since the All-star break. Richmond has though about making a run right after the break with a mini 5 game win streak but then decided that maybe they didn't want the NL East now losers of 12 of the last 16. Way to step-up. Philadelphia is lurking around at six games back and with neither team taking the division and running with it they might sneak in and steal it. The NL West has the two teams holding the wild card spots.

Salem in the five hole and Vancouver in the six. Five games between these two team might still make a race yet. Fighting for the last spot is very large group and I would start looking up your tie breakers now. At this point in the season I make the cut off six games. Charlotte, Charleston, Wichita all just two back. New York and Richmond four back. Montreal five and Buffalo at six.

My unfair unsub picks.(I didn't do a schedule peak for the NL... too many races to look in on)

  1. Houston. Just add Bullpen arms and ready to gain some distance for the one spot.

  2. Sacramento. They just are a slightly better team then Fargo.

  3. Fargo. just missing the two spot

  4. Philly. I will go with the team with the best players. Six back might be too much to pass two teams but I see them making a run.

  5. Salem. Good hitting club that has pitching fairly well.

  6. Vancouver. They just pitch really well and their defense it tops in the NL.

Good luck I will update in a little while.

Monday, September 12, 2011


Paul Melville. It really could be any of Baltimore's top 3 hitters. The Triple Bs have three guys with OPSs over 1.000. Those same three are also on the plus side of 30 homeruns. When voting comes around I am sure that some these players will not make the final top five because of WiS strange section process. I know that WiS loves to get players like Enir DeJesus in to voting they love the stolen bases. He is also fielding really well and I sort of wish I didn't trade him away.


David Bolivar. It was a very close call between him and ajpop's Andrea Delany. At season's end the voters may disagree with me and I am okay with it. I choose Bolivar for a few reasons. First even though I do not like the way All-Stars are picked Bolivar was one this season. Second defense should play a roll and Bolivar is a sure shot mid-season Gold Glove 3rd basemen and I would say Silver Slugger 3rd basemen. The last thing I will say is the home park factors. Delany plays his home games in a hitters park and Bolivar plays his games in an extreme pitchers park. Bolivar should also be in the running for MVP.

AL Cy Young

Temlind Timlin. After gushing in the last post about how great of a season Baltimore pitchers have been this season could it have came from another team. There are other very strong candidates but Timlin is hands down the top pitcher in the AL this season. Leads the league in OPS against, WHIP, OBP, OAV, WinsK/9. Top five in ERA, SLG, Ks, K/B, B/9. You can not argue with this selection. If you think "Big" Dick Randall is having a better season a want to vote for him that's your call. To me it looks like Timlin is ahead in the more important stats.

Friday, September 9, 2011

The Mid-Season Report

We are just passed the half point and somethings are gaining clarity. First The AL West is terrible. Every other team in the AL outside of the division would be leading it. The AL has nine teams under .500 and the West has four of them. On the flip side the AL only has 6 teams over .500. Of course three teams are with-in on game of that mark. The NL has only 7 teams below .500 leaving 8 teams with a winning record. The NL east is like a rich mans AL West since all their teams are under .500.
Despite the DH, the AL has 4 of the top five pitching ERAs in the world. Only Houston makes the list at number 4. Baltimore's pitchers have been so good that are their team ERA is currently 2.97. That would put them are the greatest pitching staff kaline has every had and the best by a fairly solid mark.
The top five are:

  1. Houston 3.08 season 18

  2. Sacramento 3.12 Season 16

  3. Wichita 3.17 season 7

  4. Philadelphia 3.20 season 16

  5. Houston 3.26 Season 19

All of those teams are nice a cozy in the punchless and no DH NL. The Top five AL only season are:

  1. 3.31 S9

  2. 3.34 S19

  3. 3.44 S20

  4. 3.51 S11

  5. 3.54 S 10 And S7

All of those season belong to Baltimore... It must be nice not to have to pitch to that line up. I will say that of the 19 teams that have finished under 4.00 in the AL 11 of them belong to Baltimore. Only 8 other teams in the AL have finished the season below 4.00 not from Baltimore. Season 21 may just be Cloudg13 crown jewel season if he can keep playing at this pace. Baltimore will be sending three starting pitchers to the All Star game for sure.

Minnesota has played in 10 extra inning games and seem to find a way of pulling out the victory 80% of the time. Their Pitching has been outstanding even though Bryce McMillon has not been at his best this season. The Bullpen here has been outstanding posting a 3.50 ERA. Baltimore's is better though at about 3.18.

Strictly by team OPS and team ERA Houston is by far the best in the NL. Floyd Mullen is having one of his best seasons ever by the way. The Man does not get old he just keeps going strong. Overall the NL team ERAs are way up from seasons past though and it doesn't seem that the offense has gone up as much. Over the last five seasons the team OPS averaged out to be about .739 and this season it is up to .745. That last five seasons team ERA Average is 4.18. This season it is 4.32. For about 5.5 points of OPS if doesn't seem to match the jump in ERA. I would have to dig deeper then I feel like doing to get to the bottom of this.

Mid-Season Award Winners according to me. NOT the WifS goes about picking winners and top five.


Paul Melville . He is just crushing the ball. This Award could maybe go to a pitcher from Baltimore.


David Bolivar. It was very close and Andre Delaney may pass him before the seasons over but Bolivars Defense is great right now.

AL Cy Young

Ted Timlin. You can not argue about the results he is putting up. The K/9, bb/k OPS against wins loss how every you do your evaluation he has to be on top. I can almost feel that he will be a Free agent this off season maybe you can pull out your check books for this two time CY winner... Maybe three time at seasons end. He will be getting paid for sure.


Jordan Wiess. He is just smashing the ball and not making many mistakes on defense.


Gerald Zhang. I don't know how he is putting up those numbers but he is.

NL Cy Young

Floyd "The Hit Man" Mullen. He is just flat out the best there is, the best there was, and the best there ever will be. Maybe he has a brother names Owen.