Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Racing!!! Where teams stand today

Historically in the AL, the Play-off picture is usually pretty set but the non-waiver deadline. This season we are seeing a few more teams pushing to get to the post season.
Baltimore is a lock for the one seed per the norm in Kaline.
For the fifth time in six season, the defending world series champions(in your face Cloud and Bernie ;-p), The Minnesota Miller are in a good position for the second seed.
As of right now, Memphis holds the three spot but St. Louis is just a game behind for the AL south crown.
The fourth spot be Scottsdale. They hold an 11 game advantage over the second team in the terrible terrible AL West. They are finally getting near .500 too, so they are playing much better baseball.
The fifth spot falls to Pawtucket and they are almost a lock for the top wild card team. If they were in the AL West or south they would be winning a better position but when you play in the Best division in the Kaline you can get stuck in second with a nice record. They hold a lead the wild card race buy 10 games but only trail Minnesota by 6 games.
Now the fight for number six. St. Louis, Seattle, and Indianapolis are all tied for the spot. Durham is only two games back Cincinnati 3 games Detroit 4 games and still even Jackson at 6 games back still has a fighting chance.
The unsub AL best guess ranking

  1. Baltimore. Really I know out a limb here. They have a 15 game lead and should be in cruise control mode now.

  2. Minnesota. With still around 50 games to go Pawtucket could make a run. Pawtucket plays Minnesota 3 more times.

  3. *Durham. Only three games back I will explain below how it plays out in my worthless math.

  4. Scottsdale. 11 game lead over really bad teams this season.

  5. Pawtucket. Ten game advantage.

  6. *St. Louis but I should pick Cincinnati again see below.

I give the 3 spot to Durham because they only have 21 games left against teams with a .500 record or better. Durham also only has seven more games against the three teams with a .600 record or better and ten games left with the teams with .400 record or under. The current leader has 28 games with teams .500 or better and 11 games with the top three teams while only playing the bottom three six times. They would have to play very good ball down the stretch to make the play-offs in my opinion. St. Louis has it rough too. They play 23 games against teams with a .500 record or better 14 games with .600 and up and only 6 with below .400.

So why even pick St. Louis to make the play-offs? I don't know. Of the games played against the top three, 16, they have won a whopping 3. So again why pick them? I guess I do truly believe that they are the best team of the wild card group. Even if all the numbers tell me differently. Cincinnati only has 19 games left with teams .500 or better, 6 games with the top three and 14 verses the bottom three. They only trail the 6 spot by three game. According to the math that got Durham in it should also get them in but well its my blog entry so eat it.

Last thing to consider. Detroit has a span of 20 games against teams below .500. They end the season with ten straight games with Baltimore Pawtucket and Minnesota. My thinking might be that those three team will be in play-off mode and key players might be resting for the real games. Maybe Detroit just maybe!

The NL is always hard to figure out. They are so much more balanced then the AL and always have tons of different racing to watch. This season is no different. Even the one seed is a race this season.

Houston holds it now but Fargo is three games back and Sacramento is Four.

That means by my quick Minnesota math that Fargo is only a game up on second first round bye spot. Those are so important and this race is so tight it is anyones call. As it stands today Sacramento has a 4 game lead for the NL West and the 3 spot.

Boston has around .500 since the All-star break. Richmond has though about making a run right after the break with a mini 5 game win streak but then decided that maybe they didn't want the NL East now losers of 12 of the last 16. Way to step-up. Philadelphia is lurking around at six games back and with neither team taking the division and running with it they might sneak in and steal it. The NL West has the two teams holding the wild card spots.

Salem in the five hole and Vancouver in the six. Five games between these two team might still make a race yet. Fighting for the last spot is very large group and I would start looking up your tie breakers now. At this point in the season I make the cut off six games. Charlotte, Charleston, Wichita all just two back. New York and Richmond four back. Montreal five and Buffalo at six.

My unfair unsub picks.(I didn't do a schedule peak for the NL... too many races to look in on)

  1. Houston. Just add Bullpen arms and ready to gain some distance for the one spot.

  2. Sacramento. They just are a slightly better team then Fargo.

  3. Fargo. just missing the two spot

  4. Philly. I will go with the team with the best players. Six back might be too much to pass two teams but I see them making a run.

  5. Salem. Good hitting club that has pitching fairly well.

  6. Vancouver. They just pitch really well and their defense it tops in the NL.

Good luck I will update in a little while.